The Commodity Markets Outlook In Eight Charts

He thinks US natural gas prices will likely be rangebound as well due to ample US supply, further delays in the development of domestic LNG export terminals, and modest growth in demand in the smartytrade reviews US. While gold prices have been rapidly climbing, oil prices have declined thus far in 2025. The World Gold Council, an international trade association for the gold industry, notes that gold prices have had an annualized growth rate of roughly 9% since 1971 (with the caveat that there have been years of both double-digit gains and losses). Movements in gold prices can influence materials stocks, but typically have a limited impact on other segments of the market.

• “Rising demand for electricity related to reshoring, electrification trends, and the build-out of new data centers should be an important trend in the power sector, with some spillover to natural gas markets over time,” FitzMaurice states.
• Analysts highlight strong structural demand, ETF re-accumulation, and ongoing physical tightness as factors that could continue to lift prices.
• Prices began to ease at the start of October, supported by a stronger dollar and investors locking in gains after the sharp rally.
• Data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) showed that lumber composite prices have climbed to $486 per 1,000 board feet.
• Brent oil dropped 14 percent in the first nine months of 2025 amid oversupply and weak demand, particularly in China—though U.S. sanctions on Russian oil caused brief price spikes.

Several Commodities Face Headwinds In 2025 — But This Metal’s Record Rally Is Set To Continue

• We used the information from their studies “Global solvents market volume share…
• Risks to the precious metals outlook are tilted to the upside.
• “Central bank purchases tend to slow in the summer and re-accelerate from September.”
• A breakdown says the market prefers growth over protection.
• That said, silver’s upside will be dependent on global industrial demand which will be impacted by Trump’s tariffs, precious metals trading services group MKS Pamp wrote in an outlook report.
• Any abrupt shift in monetary policy could temper precious metal rallies, but core demand drivers persist.

Global physically backed gold ETFs added US$8.2bn in October, the fifth consecutive monthly inflow. North America Drinkware Market Growth & TrendsThe North America drinkware market size is estimated to reach USD 15.21 billion by 2033, registering a CAGR of 6.6% from 2026 to 2033, a… The North America bioregenerative aesthetic injectable market size was estimated at USD 497.8 million in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,160.0 million by 2033, gro… Our perspective means we know what is happening in your regional market and what is working elsewhere in the world. We used the information from their studies “Global solvents market volume share…

Silver And Platinum Likely To Advance

For example, Goldman Sachs Research estimates that China holds less than 10% of its reserves in gold, compared to around 70% for the US, Germany, France, and Italy. “We view this as a structural shift in reserve management behavior, and we do not expect a near-term reversal,” Thomas writes. “Central bank purchases tend to slow in the summer and re-accelerate from September.” Buyers of gold fall into two broad groups, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The precious metal has risen more than 40% in 2025 and is on pace for its third-straight year of double-digits gains.

Mcx Gold Spot Price Return In 1 Year (month-wise Data)

Bullion prices rose about 26% in 2024, data from FactSet showed, driven by central bank as well as retail investor purchases. BMI forecasts gas prices to rise by about 40% in 2025 to $3.4 per million British thermal units (MMbtu) compared to an average of $2.4 per MMbtu in 2024, driven by growing demand from the LNG sector and higher net pipeline exports. The International Energy Agency in November painted a bearish oil market picture for 2025, forecasting global oil demand to grow under a million barrels per day. Silver prices surged to record highs of around $54 per ounce in mid-October, supported by safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and firm industrial demand. Longer term, FitzMaurice maintains that increasing energy investments will be needed to meet rising demand for oil and gas in the coming years and decades.

Readers seeking a broader understanding of what moves gold prices can read our in-depth analysis. These geopolitical factors often lead to increased volatility in both the gold and oil markets. Interest and inflation rates play a crucial role in determining gold and oil prices. That said, silver’s upside will be dependent on global industrial demand which will be impacted by Trump’s tariffs, precious metals trading services group MKS Pamp wrote in an outlook report. BullionVault and JPMorgan expect gold prices to go up to $3,000 per ounce in 2025. "Global oil and gas demand remains uncertain, with stable economic growth and rising fuel demand offset by trade war impacts, inflation and contracting demand in developed markets."

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Iron ore prices may also slide on the back of an oversupply resulting from Chinese policies and geopolitics. "Both silver and platinum have strong underlying deficit fundamentals, and we think a catch up trade later in 2025, once base metals find firmer footing, could be quite potent," JPMorgan analysts noted. Ukraine’s recent halt of Russian gas flow to several European nations on New Year’s Day has introduced greater uncertainty to the global gas markets. Also, if OPEC+ plans to roll back voluntary cuts materialize, the oversupply will further pressure prices. After rising by an expected 29 percent in 2025 (y/y), platinum prices are projected to increase by around 4 percent in 2026.

Why Did Copper Explode?

• Central banks purchased less gold in July than in an average month this year, according to Goldman Sachs Research’s nowcast of central bank activity.
• Gold is on track to record fresh highs next year, supported by safe-haven demand, including continued central bank buying.
• We see major near-term U.S. arbitrage and flat price upside opportunities for COMEX palladium, as we think markets are underpricing potential tariff risk if Critical Mineral Section 232 tariffs are imposed, with a report on the matter expected to reach President Trump by October 19.
• Also, if OPEC+ plans to roll back voluntary cuts materialize, the oversupply will further pressure prices.

The price of softwood lumber recently hit the highest level since June 2023 and is roughly 15% higher compared to one year ago. For example, the price of lumber—which is among the commodities that’s been the subject of tariff conflicts between the United States and Canada—has climbed in 2025. After briefly nearing 2024 highs earlier this year, they have since fallen as recession worries have cut into the demand forecast. We are constructive in the medium term on copper, with a $12,000-a-ton base case (~20% upside) over the next six to 12 months; our bull case is +40% to $14,000 a ton.

Before you start trading, make sure you fully understand the risks involved, as detailed in our Risk Disclosure Statement. You could lose more than your initial investment, so it’s important to only trade with money you can afford to lose. The technicals are offering clues, but it’s the interplay of fundamentals and expectations that will determine what breaks and what holds.

Its view is based on a bearish outlook for the dollar, driven by expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve under a new Chair and the risk that stubborn inflation could further weaken US real yields. For example, gold at $3,000/oz priced at GBP/USD 1.23 gives roughly £2,439 per ounce. While gold is priced in US dollars, UK investors must consider the pound–dollar exchange rate, which heavily influences the price paid in pounds. → Structural demand is rising→ Supply is tight→ Central banks are buying at record pace→ ETFs are set to re-enter→ Macro uncertainty and US fiscal weakness persist Read more on our research into the effect inflation has on the price of precious metals. India and China alone account for over half of the global jewellery demand.

• Among our key takeaways, we see the ongoing bull market in gold and silver and the moderate bear market in crude oil continuing into early next year.
• Keeping pace with the business environment, we publish custom, syndicated market research studies.
• While we’re neutral for this year’s fourth quarter, copper is exposed to structural energy-transition and AI trends and leveraged to a pickup in U.S. and global growth expectations.
• Renewed geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, or financial market volatility could prompt additional safe-haven demand, pushing gold and silver prices above current projections.

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Gold’s outlook for 2026 is shaped by an unusually strong alignment of structural demand, macroeconomic uncertainty, currency weakness and physical-market tightness. Analysts highlight strong structural demand, ETF re-accumulation, and ongoing physical tightness as factors that could continue to lift prices. Below shows what the value of a £10k gold investment could be worth in 2026, if the gold price hits the various expert forecasts. For readers who want background context on how gold is priced, you can learn more in our guide on who sets the gold price and how it is determined. As we look towards 2025, being well-informed allows us to navigate the unpredictable waters of the gold and oil markets with confidence.